began to base his ideas on them.
deals. When he opened a short position, the outlines of the highs
turned out to be just pauses in a growing bull market.
In the same ruinous way, after each purchase, the steady upward trend in prices suddenly reversed.
“The problem is,” he reflected, “that graphical analysis is too crude. I need a computerized trading system." So he began to test various schemes to see if any of them would be profitable as a trading
systems in the past. After exhaustive research, he OбonружAndл, чTO пOкупка coеVsх бOбOV, какаO And еVрOдOлларOV V перVsй VTOр20 ЧАСTЬ 1. ANALYSIS GRAPHICS
The odd-numbered months and the subsequent closing of those positions on the third Thursday of the same month have generated significant profits over the past five years. Incredibly, this well-researched pattern stopped working after he started trading. Another bad luck.
The stock trader tried many other methods (Elliott waves, numbers
Fibonacci, Gann squares, phases of the moon), but they all turned out to be so
or ineffective. Just then he heard about the famous guru,
who lived on a distant mountain in the Himalayas and answered the questions of all
pilgrims who managed to find him. The trader boarded a plane to Nepal, hired guides, and set out on a two-month journey. IN
in the end, at the end of his strength, he reached the famous guru.
“O wisest one,” he said, “I am a desperate man. Many
For years I have been looking for the key to a successful stock market game, but everything I have tried,
turned out to be futile. IN чеm секreT?»
The Guru thought only for a moment, and, gazing intently at the visitor,
answered: "PODEPRODO". He didn't say anything more.
"PODEPRODO?" — the trader did not understand the answer. This word overcame him every free minute, but he still could not comprehend its meaning.
The stock trader told this story to many people, until finally one
of the listeners did not decipher the answer of the guru.
“It's simple enough,” he said. “Buy low, sell high.”
The guru's message may well disappoint readers looking for a profound key to stock market wisdom. PODEPRODO does not fit our concept of discernment because it is natural
comes from common sense. OneкO еslAnd, как пreдпOлагал Voltaire,
“common sense is by no means inherent in everyone,” then this message is not obvious. Consider, for example, the following question: “What is the advice for traders in a market that is making new highs?” PODEPRODO's "common sense" theory is unambiguously
would indicate that subsequent trading activity should be limited to opening a short position.
INесьmа VерOITнO, чTO зonчAndTельonI часTь бAndржеVsх AndгрOкOV удOVлеTVOрAndлась бs TакOй AndнTерпreTацAndей. The appeal of the approach
PODEPRODO may be related to the desire of most traders to demonstrate their skills. IN кOнце кOнцOV, any
a fool can buy on the market after a long rise in prices, but you need to
be a genius to catch the fading of this trend and sell for the maximum. INO VсIкOm slучае, лAndшь неmнOгAndе TOрthVsе сTраTегAndAnd Tак же
close to "household" intuition, as the tendency to buy when prices are low and sell when prices are high.
IN reзульTаTе mнOгAndе бAndржеVsе AndгрOкAnd AndmеюT сAndльную склOnnOсTь
OTкрsVаTь кOрOTкAndе пOзAndцAndAnd, кOгда рsнOк VхOдAndT V нOVsй, бOлее VsGЛАINА 1. CHARTS: ANDНСTРУMЕНT PРABOUTGНABOUTЗANDРABOUTINАНANDЯ... 21
juice price range. IN эTOm пOдхOде есTь TOлькO Oдon OшAndбка: Oн не
works. A plausible explanation is always at hand. Ability
the market to emerge and gain a foothold at new heights usually indicates
about powerful support forces that often push prices too high. Common sense? Certainly. note, however, that the implications for trading are diametrically opposed to those that follow from the "common sense" approach of PODEPRODO.
The fact is that our "everyday" intuition and common sense regarding the behavior of the market are often erroneous. Graphic
analysis allows you to apply common sense to stock trading -
a target much more elusive than it seems. For example, if
before starting to play on the stock exchange, someone would comprehensively study
historical price charts in order to determine the consequences of the market reaching new highs, he would be much more likely not to
fall into one of the typical traps that lie in wait for novice traders. INнAndmаTельнO AndзучаI AndсTOрAndческAndе mOделAnd дVAndжenAndI
prices, you can comprehend other market truths.
It should, however, be recognized that the usefulness of graphs as
indicator of future price direction is fiercely contested. INmесTO
listing all the pros and cons in this controversy, we will note that a recent episode of a popular television program on financial markets succinctly highlighted some of the key issues in this controversy. Below
The recording of this program is presented:
INЕДУЩANDЙ ЗдраVсTVуйTе! I am Duis Panizer from
weekly "Street Wallet". Today we will depart from our usual
interview forms to give space
debate about the usefulness of price charts
exchange goods. Can all these
do jumping lines and outlines really predict the future? Or
Shakespeare's description of life
same applies to graphical analysis: "An idiot's tale, full of noise and
rage, but without any sense"? СеthднI onшAndmAnd thсTImAnd IVлIюTсI INера Н. TenдenцAndI, AndзVесTнsй TехнAndческAndй аonлAndTAndк фAndрms «Чарнуm And Барнуm» с УOлл-сTрAndT, And ДюбOmAndр А. MOнеTа, прOфесcoр УнAndVерсAndTеTа БашнAnd
from Ivory and author of the book
"The only way to beat the market is to become a broker." MAndсTер MOне22 ЧАСTЬ 1. ANALYSIS GRAPHICS
PROFESSOR COIN
MISS TREND
well, you belong to a group of experts called the Random Walkers. This
some kind of travel club,
determining a destination by throwing darts at a road map?
(Smugly laughing at the camera).
no, Mr. Panizer. "Wandering
At random" is a group of economists
who believe that the movement of market prices is random. That is, it is impossible to develop
market price prediction system,
just as it is impossible to build a system for predicting the colors that fall out sequentially when playing
"roulette". Both are purely a matter of chance. Prices have no memory:
what happened yesterday does not
nothing to do with what happens tomorrow. In other words, graphs can only tell you about
what happened in the past; they are helpless in predicting the future.
Professor, you are missing one very
important fact: daily prices are not extracted from the lottery drum, but
rather, they are the result of the collective actions of all market participants. The behavior of people may not
as predictable as movement
planets, governed by physical laws, but it is not completely spontaneous. If this is not the case, then
your profession, economics, is doomed to the same fate as alchemy.
(At these words Professor Moneta
fidgeted in his chair.) Graphs reveal
basic patterns of behavior. L about those
so far the same interactions
between buyers and sellers
будуT прAndVOдAndTь к OдAndonкOVsm цenOGЛАINА 1. CHARTS: ANDНСTРУMЕНT PРABOUTGНABOUTЗANDРABOUTINАНANDЯ... 23
PROFESSOR COIN
MISS TREND
PROFESSOR COIN
MISS TREND
to your models, past experience can indeed be used as
indicator of the future.
If past prices can be used to predict future prices, then
why a myriad of academic studies have concluded that test-takers technical
models could not outperform the simple
"buy and hold" scheme including brokerage commissions?
The methods tested in such studies are usually
too simplistic. Research
show only that these specific schemes do not work. But they don't
prove that a more extensive synthesis of price information such as
graphical analysis or a more complex technical system cannot
be successfully used in making trading decisions.
Then why are there no studies that convincingly demonstrate the viability of graphical analysis as a predictive tool?
INаш аргуmenT OTражаеT Vсеth лAndшь
the difficulties of quantitative expression of graphical theories, and not the shortcomings of the graphical method itself.
What one considers an image
vertex, to another it appears as an area of ​​consolidation. An attempt to describe mathematically any graphical model, except for the simplest ones,
will inevitably lead to controversial results. The problem becomes more
запуTаnnее, кOгда OcoзonюT, чTO V any даnnsй mOmenT VremenAnd рAndсунOк
графAndка mOжеT VsражаTь прOTAndVOre24 ЧАСTЬ 1. ANALYSIS GRAPHICS
PROFESSOR COIN
MISS TREND
PROFESSOR COIN
bowls each other models. Thus, in a sense, it is indeed impossible to objectively verify
many graphic theories.
Which is pretty convenient for you, isn't it
whether? If these theories cannot be comprehensively tested, what good are they?
How do you know that chart-based trading will lead to the best
results than just 50/50 (excluding commissions, of course)?
If you mean blindly following every chart signal
will only make your broker rich, then I do not argue. However, my point
view is that graphical analysis is an art, not a science. Getting to know basic graphic theories is just a starting point. True utility
charting depends on the ability
trader to successfully synthesize standard concepts and their own experience. IN уmелsх руках графAndкAnd
can be extremely valuable
forecasting significant market
trends. There are many successful traders who take their
solutions mainly through
graphs. How would you explain their success - a streak of success?
Yes. That's right - a streak of luck. At
enough traders, some of them will win no matter how they take
their decisions - by studying charts or
throwing darts at the stock quotes page. This не mеTOд, а Vсеth лAndшь закOн VерOITнOсTAnd. Even in casinos, a certain percentage of players still win. INs Vедь не скажеGЛАINА 1. CHARTS: ANDНСTРУMЕНT PРABOUTGНABOUTЗANDРABOUTINАНANDЯ... 25
MISS TREND
INЕДУЩANDЙ
PROFESSOR COIN
INЕДУЩANDЙ
PROFESSOR COIN
MISS TREND
PROFESSOR COIN
those that owe their success to some insight or system.
This дOказsVаеT TOлькO TO, чTO бOлее
the high results of some adherents of graphical analysis may have been achieved by chance.
This не OпрOVергаеT уTVерждenAndI O
that an experienced graphist knows something
something that gives him an edge.
I feel a lot of resistance here and I think we could use
rely on some support. Gentlemen, do you have any evidence to support your
positions?
Yes! (At эTOm прOфесcoр MOнеTа VsTаскAndVаеT Andз пOрTфелI пухлsй mанускрAndпT And суеT еth V рукAnd г-on PанAndзерA.
INедущAndй беглO прOсmаTрAndVаеT OTдельнsе сTранAndцs And качаеT thлOVOй, заmеTAndV
an abundance of funny Greek letters.)
I meant something less mathematical. Even educational television
not yet ready for this.
Well, I have one more thing.
(He takes out a piece of paper and hands it to Ms. Trends.) How would you
interpreted this graph, miss
Trend? (He tries unsuccessfully
hide a smug smile.)
I'd say it's like a chart based on series of coin tosses. Well, you know: the eagle -
one cell up, tails - one
cell down.
(Whose smirk turned